Donbass-2016: experts predict a protracted conflict

Donbass-2016: experts predict a protracted conflict
The situation in the occupied territories this year, virtually unchanged. Many military experts believe that the gangs will continue to organize small provocations, and this will be done with only one purpose - to leaders of the militants are trying to achieve a variety of concessions from Kiev. According replyua.net, 2016 in Donbas may change, but they will not deal with a military conflict, and the "improvement" of the region.

The authorities of the self-proclaimed republics begin routine "arrangement" DNI and LC, to further move away from Kiev, and to set their own rules in the region. It is possible that in the coming months there will be new to the Donets Basin, banks, ministries, will change the system of education, and the "republic" finally switch to the Russian ruble. In addition, the continued purge of militants and their commanders, which actively began the Russian security services in the past year. Regarding the implementation of the Minsk agreement, they can not be delayed for one year. This was repeatedly told military analysts, who believe that any of the parties not be able to perform all of the items.

Putin will continue to destabilize the situation in Ukraine itself, rather than in the Donbass, and will be used for a variety of mechanisms. On large-scale offensive Kremlin is no longer able - firstly, there were other interests, in particular in Syria, and, secondly, Russia does not have the financial capacity to attract additional equipment and weapons, as well as troops in Donbass. Even if Putin will allocate the necessary amount for military operations, the mercenaries will no longer be aggressive. Who is the Donbass Ukrainian military have created a powerful grouping that fighters can not break. All they will do is not to make frequent and chaotic firing positions.

The Kremlin can change tactics and stop the military action in case together with the authorities of the DNI and LC will begin "improvement." The first step to the "separation" of the Ukrainian Donbass was the introduction into circulation of the Russian ruble. In addition, the authorities attempted to create something like the army, for example, the Army Corps DNI and LC. Now "army" are militants from the "militia", as well as mercenaries from various battalions. However, the fighting qualities of this "army" is hardly high. The militants are tired, "ate" in the past year and a half, and many of them, according to the Ukrainian intelligence has long sided with the Ukraine. It is difficult to expect something standing by fighters who do not know, for what fight.

As for the civilians of Donbass, they do not hide the disappointment of the current situation. Many residents of the DNI and the LC openly say that are tired of living in captivity militants. The situation in the region is deteriorating day by day, and Russian rubles, which is now considered the official currency, no one. Big challenges await the residents of Donbass, receiving a pension and working at state enterprises. Payments are still detained, many citizens have lost their jobs and are trying to survive by finding the most unusual ways of earning. According to experts, this situation people will be able to withstand a few months, so the authorities of the breakaway republics will have to think about what the way out of the crisis can be taken.
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