Economic forecasts 2016: What awaits Ukraine in the new year

Economic forecasts 2016: What awaits Ukraine in the new year
Experts forecast economic growth in 2016, but noted that for Ukrainians the new year may be much heavier than the previous one - it will affect a variety of factors, including cumulative scale of the crisis, low incomes and savings of citizens. According replyua.net, there are good chances for investors, as well as the expected low level of economic growth - by about two per cent, but only if the government fails to carry out the necessary reforms. It is necessary to fight corruption, implement tax and judicial reforms in the country.

Experts have given the forecast for the current year, and they predict inflation at 12 per cent, GDP growth of two per cent, 40 per barrel of oil, 225 dollars per thousand cubic meters of imported gas, as well as 24 hryvnia for one dollar. However, skeptics believe that such forecasts can not be trusted. They are considered long-term, and, as you know, in our country are constantly taking place some events affecting the economy. What made these forecasts, and who needs them? The answer is obvious - no forecast, made by a professional, it is impossible to organize the work and even their lives, so the governing bodies are always based on forecasts to correct any situation.

The main news of the beginning of the year was the abolition of duties on trade with the EU. Of course, in 2016, exports will not increase tenfold, but this innovation will help Ukraine to get closer to European standards, improve the quality of exported goods. Retail prices may decline slightly as import duties on products produced in the EU are also canceled. Cancellation of import duties, meanwhile, may have a negative impact on Ukrainian producers, who feel serious competition.

Gas price for Ukraine may not be less than $ 200 per thousand cubic meters, as predicted Yatsenyuk. In the best case, Ukraine will receive a small discount. In the budget for 2016 laid down the price of gas at 225 dollars. If Ukraine will continue purchases of Russian gas, experts strongly doubt that in Russia are ready for maximum savings.

Ukrainian pensioners in the current year should be expected to increase payments in two stages. In total, the pension should be increased by 12.5 per cent - the level of expected inflation in the country. From the budget of the Pension Fund of the government has allocated 145 billion hryvnia, therefore, late payment should not be. But as wages, then the "segment" Expect more problems. Experts do not exclude that many employers will delay payments, in addition, to raise salaries in Ukraine no one is going. On a slight increase can only count state employees.

The International Monetary Fund has calculated an expected rate of hryvnia in 2016, and he was laid in the budget. However, financial analysts are skeptical that in December 2016 the dollar will cost 24 hryvnia. According to their forecasts, the minimum rate will be 30 hryvnia for one dollar. Even the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Natalia Gontareva, does not exclude the emergence of various risks. One of the factors that can affect the rate of national currency, it is called the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which had a negative impact on the currencies of developing countries. However, even if the dollar will rise, the decision to raise interest rates may lead to positive changes: a decrease in energy prices, a decrease in oil prices.

As for inflation, the budget of this year it is set at the level of 12 percent. The National Bank believes that inflation will fluctuate at the level of three percent, but independent analysts predict inflation immediately by 20-30 percent. At the beginning of this year, many products will become more expensive. Previously, farmers said that in January 2016 will become more expensive vegetables and meat, and meat prices could increase by 30 per cent and for vegetables - just 50 percent. Rising prices for other foods, too, did not take long, so the inflation rate of 12 percent - this is too optimistic forecast for Ukraine.

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